Launched in 2006, Euro RSCG Predictameter, a forecasting tool that provides useful consumer insights into any given category predicted the fate of 18 movies, at a strike rate of 83% in 2006. This year the Predictameter has turned bigger and forecast the fate of 30 movies to be released in next four months.
According to the Predictameter, 2007 won?t be as hot as 2006 was - this will be a year of flops and average grossers, no super hits and a few hits.
In the year 2006 fate of movies like UMRAO JAAN, OMKARA, GOLMAAAL, MUNNABHAI, KANK, SALAAM-E-ISHQ and NISHABD were predicted. Predictameter had successfully estimated that mega budget films (SALAAM E ISHQ and OMKARA) would not do well at the Box Office. As was forecast, OMKARA recorded Box Office seat occupancy of merely 25% in the first week of its launch and UMRAO JAAN recorded occupancy of just 30-40% and BAABUL of 40%.
With the rapid pace at which Bollywood movies are being made and released, every movie just gets one week to perform at the Box Office. And its just first week Box Office seat occupancy that makes a movie a hit or a flop.
To predict the fate of the movies to be released in 2007 a study was conducted in five markets; Mumbai, Delhi, Lucknow, Bangalore and Ahmedabad. The respondents were first exposed to critical information about each movie before their opinions were recorded.
A large percentage of respondents indicated that CHAK DE INDIA would at best be an average grosser and SAANVARIYAN, the much touted launch vehicle of Ranbir and Sonam would just about break even at the turnstiles. Other films deemed to be about average grossers include- The big budget OM SHANTI OM and RAM GOPAL VARMA KI AAG among others.
It has been predicted that HEY BABY, Sajid Khan?s directorial venture will do well at the box office. The other films expected to do well this year are JODHA AKBAR and DARLING.
One of the biggest releases of the year, AAJA NACHLE (Madhuri Dixit's comeback) has been deemed a flop apart from KAAFILA (already released), LAAGA CHUNARI MEIN DAAG and DRONA.
Some of the other movies covered in the study are DHAMAAL, SPEED, AGGAR, LOVE STORY 2050, BUDDHA MAR GAYA, VICTORIA NO 203, etc.